In a country as diverse as India, caste has always been a sensitive and decisive issue. Since independence, the central government has never conducted a large-scale caste-based census. The last such census took place during British rule in 1931, and since then, the issue had largely been sidelined. However, with the political climate gearing up for the 2025 elections, the topic has resurfaced with a renewed focus.
PM Modi’s Decision to Conduct Caste Census Shakes Up Indian Politics
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to conduct a caste-based census ahead of the Bihar elections has sent ripples across the political landscape of India. While the opposition has long been demanding such a move, the central government’s sudden approval has changed the political dynamics. What was once a divisive issue has now found its place in the hands of the BJP, potentially reshaping Indian politics and society as a whole.
The caste census is essentially an effort to determine the population of each caste in India. It involves understanding the proportion of various communities in terms of their social, educational, and economic participation. Until now, this data has been estimated, and policies have been made based on approximations. But with concrete data, discussions about rightful shares and entitlements are bound to become more factual and transparent. This is where the new social equations of India are likely to emerge.
Bihar’s Caste Survey Reveals Shocking Imbalances
The caste-based survey in Bihar provided some startling revelations. According to the results, the backward class (OBC) population stands at 27.12%, while the extremely backward class (EBC) comprises 36.01%. Combined, the OBC and EBC groups account for 63.13% of the total population.
If the principle of “proportional participation, proportional representation” is applied, these communities would be entitled to 63% reservation. However, currently, OBCs receive only 12% and EBCs 18%, which is far from reflective of their actual demographic strength. This discrepancy has now become a hot topic for debate across the nation.
Demand for Increased Reservation for SC/ST
Bihar’s caste survey also showed that the Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) make up more than 20% of the population, but they currently have only 17% reservation. With OBC and EBC communities pushing for increased reservation, it is highly likely that the SC/ST communities will also demand a larger share of the pie. If every community begins to stake a claim for a higher percentage of reservation based on their population, the question will arise: Who will lose out?
The clear answer seems to be that the general category will bear the brunt of the cuts. The general category’s share in the population was pegged at just 15% in Bihar’s caste survey, yet they currently benefit from 50% of the reservation seats. If reservations for OBC, SC, and ST communities are adjusted according to their population ratios, the share for the general category will rapidly diminish, potentially leading to significant social conflicts.
Caste Proportions and Political Implications Nationwide
Official figures on caste representation across the nation remain absent, but sociological and political analyses suggest the following approximate proportions: OBCs make up around 35% of the population, SCs 16.6%, STs 8.6%, and the general category around 25%. However, several social organizations claim that the OBC population is over 50%, a claim that, if proven true, could lead to a complete overhaul of the reservation system.
Until now, the constitutional limit for reservations has been set at 50%. However, with caste-based data being officially recognized and growing pressures to address inequities, calls to break this 50% cap are likely to intensify. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has already questioned the need for this 50% cap, suggesting that populations with a larger demographic should be entitled to proportional representation.
BJP’s Political Strategy with the Caste Census
The caste census could provide a significant political advantage to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as it is believed that the OBC community, which accounts for over 50% of the population, has been a major source of BJP’s electoral success. Through this census, the BJP seeks to position itself as the champion of OBC rights, sending a clear message that it is working for their fair share. Furthermore, BJP may use the caste census to position itself against Muslim reservation, portraying the Congress and regional parties as focusing on Muslim rights while BJP is focused on securing rights for Hindu OBCs.
With PM Modi’s approval of the caste census, the opposition parties, including Congress, SP, RJD, JDU, DMK, and TMC, have found themselves on the back foot, as these parties had traditionally made caste-based surveys a part of their election manifestos.
Will the Face of Reservation Change?
The big question now is whether the caste-based census will lead to changes in the reservation system. Will the 50% cap be lifted? Will each caste receive reservation in proportion to its population? Constitutional experts argue that if accurate data emerges, the Supreme Court might reconsider the reservation cap. In the 1992 Indra Sawhney case, the court fixed the limit at 50%, but if the data indicates significant social imbalances, Parliament or the Supreme Court might treat this as an exception and allow a revision.
The caste census has ignited a new debate in Indian society. Some view it as a revolutionary step towards social justice, while others see it as the beginning of social conflict. If every caste demands rights proportional to its population, it could strengthen the sense of justice. However, if certain groups see their share reduced, the potential for conflicts will rise.
The caste census is not merely a government procedure but a historic event that will shape the future trajectory of India’s social and political fabric. It is poised to either reinforce the principles of social justice or lead to a major rethinking of the current reservation system.
