Could global crude oil prices drop to record lows in the coming weeks? This isn’t just speculation—there’s real momentum behind the question. OPEC, the oil-producing alliance led by Gulf nations, has announced an increase in crude oil production. As a result, both Gulf and U.S. oil prices have seen a significant downturn in the international market.
Industry experts believe this downward trend could continue, with the price of Gulf crude potentially falling to $50 per barrel. If that happens, India might see a reduction of ₹10 to ₹15 per litre in petrol and diesel prices.
Exchange Rate Will Play a Crucial Role
The impact of falling oil prices on fuel costs in India will also depend heavily on the INR-USD exchange rate. If the Indian Rupee maintains strength and remains between ₹81 and ₹83 per U.S. dollar over the next two months, the chances of fuel prices falling by ₹10–₹15 increase significantly.
Current Oil Price Trends: A Global Slide
As of 1:55 PM IST, Brent crude (from Gulf producers) was trading at $60.11 per barrel, down by $1.18. In intra-day trading, prices touched a 52-week low of $58.51. For comparison, Friday’s closing price was $61.29 per barrel.
Similarly, U.S. crude (WTI) also witnessed a sharp drop. WTI fell by 2.11%, or $1.23, to settle at $57.06 per barrel. During the trading session, it dipped as low as $55.39, again near a 52-week low. On Friday, WTI was priced at $58.29 per barrel.
Sharp Decline in Indian Oil Futures
In India, crude oil futures traded on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) have also declined. The May contract saw a drop of ₹125 (2.50%), trading at ₹4,815 per barrel. Intra-day trading saw a further dip to ₹4,724. On Monday morning, crude opened at ₹4,873, down from Friday’s ₹4,940. Compared to ₹6,124 on April 2, crude prices have plummeted ₹1,400 (around 23%) over the past month.
How Low Can Crude Go? Expert Predictions
According to Anuj Gupta, Head of Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities, crude prices may fall further over the next two months. He estimates that Brent crude could dip to $50–$55 per barrel, while U.S. crude may hover around $48–$53. The key reason? Oversupply. He added that supply could increase further in the international market, leading to additional pressure on prices. He also noted that the rupee’s strength against the dollar could provide extra relief for India.
Could Petrol Prices in India Drop by ₹10–₹15?
The biggest question now is: how much of this price drop will reach the Indian consumer? If Brent crude does touch $50 per barrel, Anuj Gupta believes petrol prices in India should ideally fall by ₹10 per litre. If the rupee also strengthens to the ₹81–₹83 range, then prices could dip by up to ₹15 per litre. That could potentially bring petrol prices in Delhi down to around ₹80 per litre.
Barclays Revises Crude Forecasts for 2025–26
British banking giant Barclays recently revised its projections. According to their report, Brent crude prices may average $66 in 2025 and $62 by the end of 2026—a $4 downward revision from previous forecasts. Barclays anticipates that OPEC+ will phase out its voluntary production cuts by October 2025, although U.S. oil production growth is expected to slow. The bank has also lowered its oil balance forecasts by 290,000 barrels per day (kbd) for 2025 and 110 kbd for 2026.
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