By News Desk 
Kerala is expected to welcome the monsoon nearly a week ahead of its usual schedule, marking the earliest arrival in the state in over 16 years. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), monsoon conditions have already begun to take shape, and the southwest monsoon is likely to hit Kerala by May 25.
This is a significant deviation from the typical onset date of June 1, and reflects growing concerns about weather unpredictability linked to climate change.
Why Is the Monsoon Arriving Early?
Meteorologists attribute the early onset to several favorable atmospheric conditions. A low-pressure system has developed over the Arabian Sea, strong south-to-north wind patterns have been observed, and consistent cloud formation is occurring. Together, these factors have created an ideal environment for the monsoon to progress quickly toward the Indian coast.
Experts suggest that these shifting weather patterns are a clear indicator of increasing climatic volatility, making it more difficult to predict when and how much rainfall will occur.
Historical Perspective: Early and Delayed Monsoons
While the average date for monsoon onset in Kerala is June 1, early arrivals have occurred in the past. The last time the monsoon arrived significantly early was in 2009 and 2001, when it reached Kerala on May 23. The earliest ever recorded onset was in 1918, when the rains hit on May 11.
On the flip side, there have also been considerable delays. The most delayed onset occurred in 1972, when the monsoon reached Kerala as late as June 18. In the past 25 years, the latest monsoon arrival was in 2016, on June 9.
IMD Forecast for the Coming Days
The IMD has issued a weather forecast predicting heavy rainfall in Kerala, parts of coastal Karnataka, and regions of Konkan and Goa on May 24. The department also anticipates continued heavy rainfall in Kerala and coastal Karnataka until May 29, along with strong winds reaching speeds of 40–50 km/h.
Additionally, scattered rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms is expected over Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh in the next five days.
With the early onset of the monsoon and changing weather patterns, experts stress the need for better preparedness and continuous monitoring, as traditional timelines may no longer hold in the era of global climate shifts.